(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle

نویسندگان

چکیده

In recent decades, several scholars have formalised Minsky’s profound insight that increasing financial fragility accompanies periods of economic stability. It must be noted, however, incisive assessments the role expectations formation with heterogeneous agents has been provided only by those contributions focusing on stock-market prices. Macroeconomic models dealing debt dynamics, other hand, not yet presented such an account. is our purpose to fill this gap in literature formalising switches between different heuristics a small-scale evolutionary agent-based model where solvency aspects matter. Our system generates time-series reproduce important empirical stylised facts as fat tails and asymmetric skewness. We show how changes risk perception are amplified way right-skewed constraint, leading output fluctuations compatible possibility crashes. Moreover, while destabilising extrapolative behaviour part conventional wisdom, we discuss conditions under which fundamentalists, existence resource constraints, time horizon unit may also lead instability.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Evolutionary Economics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1432-1386', '0936-9937']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-021-00743-6